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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 10 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CLE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model