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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 12 – New Orleans Saints 18

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep middle to 11-A.Callaway for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 47, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model