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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 2-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.91 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model