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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 18 – Cleveland Browns 18

What Actually Happened

(:26) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model