Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

(14:30) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NO 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Lewis to NO 19 for no gain (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model