4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to HOU 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-31-N.Jamerson, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at HOU 7.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model