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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 38

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:27) (Punt formation) 8-T.Daniel punts 27 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-52-B.Peters. PENALTY on TEN-99-J.Casey, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model