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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 16

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:44) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model