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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to HOU 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 30 for -1 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model