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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 36

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:16) (Field Goal formation) 7-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model