Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 71

Washington Commanders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on WAS-57-N.Sundberg, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model