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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 68

Washington Commanders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to IND 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model