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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 53

Washington Commanders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 5-T.Way punts 31 yards to IND 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model