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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 9

Washington Commanders 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP