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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 2-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.13 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model