4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 59

Washington Commanders 9 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles up the middle to WAS 46 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.14 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -0.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model