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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 86

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to WAS 32, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 38 for 6 yards (44-Z.Franklin, 52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.43 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model