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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 46

Washington Commanders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to IND 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-16-J.Chesson. PENALTY on IND-80-C.Rogers, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at IND 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.28 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model