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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 6-M.Wile punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model