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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 6-M.Wile punts 48 yards to GB 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model