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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 92

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 6-J.Scott punts 59 yards to MIN 33, Center-43-H.Bradley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 46 for 13 yards (56-K.Toomer).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.61 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 92, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 50, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model