Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 6-M.Wile punts 52 yards to GB 10, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, touched at GB 10, and recovers at GB 11. 18-R.Cobb to GB 11 for no gain (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.76 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model