4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to MIN 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model