Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 20

(5:04) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to GB 24, Center-47-K.McDermott. 18-R.Cobb pushed ob at GB 24 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model