4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to MIN 29, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-A.Morrison.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 75, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model