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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP