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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 23 – Minnesota Vikings 21

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model