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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 34 yards to NE 6, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-26-J.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP