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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 11

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model