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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 10

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 4-J.Lambo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 10, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model