Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 74

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – New England Patriots 10

(:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 33 yards to NE 41, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model