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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 28

New England Patriots 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model