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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 9-L.Cooke punts 39 yards to NE 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-30-C.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model