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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 82

New England Patriots 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 6-R.Allen punts 59 yards to JAX 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 39 for 16 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.90 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP