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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to JAX 11, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 16 for 5 yards (51-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP