4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 52

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -2.16 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP