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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 54

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 10-E.Manning up the middle to NYG 47 for 1 yard (98-T.Crawford; 50-S.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 54, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model