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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 51

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to DAL 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.94 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model