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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:47) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model