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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model