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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 1-C.Johnston punts 63 yards to TB 7, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-A.Humphries to TB 17 for 10 yards (30-C.Clement).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model