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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 16, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 30-C.Clement.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model