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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete deep left to 30-C.Clement (21-J.Evans) [90-J.Pierre-Paul].

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model