Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

(:28) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 30-C.Clement to PHI 10 for 3 yards (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.65 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -0.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model