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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 28, Center-89-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-16-F.Martino.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model