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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.97 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model