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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 69

Chicago Bears 10 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to SEA 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 31 for 14 yards (15-J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.87 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model