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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 50

Chicago Bears 10 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to SEA 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP