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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 78

Chicago Bears 17 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to SEA 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.36 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model