Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Chicago Bears 0

(7:34) 2-A.Lee punts 61 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-A.Brewer. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 27 for 21 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.37 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model